The normal distribution is a great property to have, because it makes statistical analysis much simpler. Year Result Ladder Home and away (percentage) AFL 2023: ESPN's way-too-early predictions - Can the Cats go again? It's disappointing more than anything; it's fair to say most neutrals wouldn't mind seeing a little success from this side which hasn't even played finals yet in its existence. Not yet anyway. AFL 2023: ESPN's way-too-early predictions - Can the Cats go again? The disclaimer at the top of this article about tipping at a neutral site is doing a lot of work here. Previous ranking: 10. 2021 record: 1-4 2021 record: 2-3 Or just want to know which team you're most suited to? Is it Carlton's year? I mean, the result wasn't a surprise, but the (lack of) effort was. The AFL Ladder explained. Previous ranking: 9. !Like | Comment your thoughts | SubscribeStay tuned for podcast dropping Friday @ 7 PM Tell me your thoughts in the comment section, who. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. Expert. For Richmond fans it had been a long time between drinks. Essendon While the top four teams look clear, picking one of them as the flag favourite is impossible. 1988 Premiers MP 142.3per cent (And thats not because of the size of the SCG. This week's opponent: GWS (Marvel Stadium), 12. Scott and his coaching staff are clearly managing this team with September in mind; they just need to make sure they dont stumble in any of their trademark were going to play slow, conservative footy against a bottom ten side and the commentators are going to ask why were going so slowly all night games. Next game: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium, Sunday early. Theres a new ute in town. 2021 record: 3-2 18. In fact, in this week's ESPN Footy Podcast, we discovered that in terms of percentage, they'd be the second worst team to make finals since 2004. A win this week on Anzac Day would alleviate some angst, but not even that is a given against an equally poor Bombers outfit. If the Dockers can just get a fair run at a season, they should play finals some time soon. There is nothing that can sum up our thoughts on Essendons performance against Port Adelaide better than this. This group is not good enough for long enough, and hasn't been for the two years under Teague. With matches upcoming against the Lions and Bombers, signs are pointing to no, but an upset in either clash might be enough to leapfrog the Hawks and Suns, given the Pies' percentage. 1971 Premiers MP 153.7per cent As an American whose never lived in an Australian city and has no connections to any city, and also no favorite team, but just enjoys the sport: Love: none . Can the Tigers still get it together and win the flag from the bottom half of the eight? Western Bulldogs 1973 Premiers 2nd 117.6per cent Fremantle On average, one team a year jumps up from the bottom 10 to the top four. We knew Freo's finals hope hinged on an unlikely home win over the Lions, and unfortunately, the Dockers (without some key players) just couldn't get the job done. AFL Rookie Rankings: An historic start for a bumper draft class, One win after four games but don't write the Tigers off yet, AFL Draft Power Rankings: Harley Reid leads the top 20 prospects, AFL Draft: Five must-watch prospects in 2023. This week's opponent: Sydney (Marvel Stadium), 12. They have a winnable match this week against Carlton at Marvel. This week's opponent: Richmond (Marvel Stadium), 13. In Perth. Hawthorn Getting West Coast in Geelong, rather than at the SCG, might actually be better for them based on the two sides respective histories at Kardinia Park. Great to see Cam Rayner getting some midfield time, too; were helping drive his bandwagon. . 2021 record: 9-11 Gold Coast Suns Previous ranking: 13. Dog shit teams . To rehash an old cliche, was that 'the loss they had to have'? There's nothing better for a club under fire than a win, and a win which transfers the media heat to the team you've beaten! Hell, maybe! Crowds are back in Victoria! Role players are battling manfully (Nick Hind has been a great pickup), the kids are doing their part, but the so-called stars have been anything but in 2021, as ESPN columnist Rohan Connolly pointed out this week. Previous article Ranking the top 10 best ever Rookie Draft selections. The Giants primarily move up a place in the rankings because Richmond and Essendon moved down past them, but they looked very solid against Sydney, particularly in the midfield with Tom Green a standout. This week's opponent: Geelong (GMHBA Stadium), 6. That may mean more pain is coming before more pleasure. Years ago, that sentence would send a shiver down one's spine, but it's 2021, and the Hawks are not that great. The numbers below are basically how well a team performs, both on the offensive and defensive side of things, in a particular season, adjusted for how excellent or otherwise that performance was in the context of the season. Their final ladder position will matter. This week's opponent: Geelong (GMHBA Stadium), 10. An unexpected win? Either way, they've been fun to watch these past couple of weeks. To think Sydney were a minute away from going 5-0 Josh Kelly's goal at the death for GWS handed their cross-town rival their first loss for the year, and they've fallen a spot on the rankings as a result. Even though Geelong seems a little lethargic, their home is still a fortress. It was another sign that, at home at least, Adelaide should be no easybeat this season. Essendon . STAFF WRITERS | December 8, 2020 - 3:10pm. 2001 Premiers 2ND 127.6 And Essendon doesnt really have any excuses for Saturdays flop, given their available personnel. Brisbane The Tigers combined losing margin in all of their losses since Round 7 is 15 points. This week's opponent: Essendon (Marvel Stadium), 3. Take the quiz and find out . Previous ranking: 14. I just found it staggering: Craig McRae baffled by Nathan Murphy Gap between top two narrows, new Blues hot start: AFL Rookie AFL CEO race over as Andrew Dillon secures top job. Will Ben Brown deliver in finals? Their period of dominance is still in the making, so lets see whether they can extend it? With a few important reinforcements for their trip east this week, youd expect them to prove too good for the reigning wooden spooners. Freo . Previous ranking: 18. Combined with a defence that remains pretty dour - the Bulldogs and Magpies had to kick especially straight to beat them - the premiers are still in that top tier of contenders. The chart below shows the cumulative Z-score of each of the 16 teams which played in all ten seasons of the study period. This week's opponent: West Coast (Optus Stadium), 11. 2021 record: 9-11 2021 record: 14-5 Next game: Carlton at the MCG, Sunday afternoon. North Melbourne AFL Rookie Rankings: An historic start for a bumper draft class, One win after four games but don't write the Tigers off yet, AFL Draft Power Rankings: Harley Reid leads the top 20 prospects, AFL Draft: Five must-watch prospects in 2023. Check. 2021 record: 6-14 Previous ranking: 17. AFL: Behind St Kilda's steamrolling start, the worrying tale of two Lions teams. AFL Debate Club: How could Gather Round best be improved in coming years? Year Result Ladder Home and away (percentage) Its almost impossible to pick the premiership favourite right now; you can make a valid case for all four of our top four-ranked sides. This week's opponent: Hawthorn (UTAS Stadium), 13. Previous ranking: 6. 1975 Runner-Up MP 137.3per cent, Carlton But its going to be an incredibly nervous wait until roughly quarter-time of their game against the Magpies, at which point theyll know what they have to do. Next game: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday afternoon. We hate having the Bulldogs fourth; they cant possibly be the fourth-best team right now, right?! Next game: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday night. 2021 record: 4-14-1 They were able to take advantage of a slightly understrength and wobbly St Kilda side for an impressive first-up win, and they should certainly be looking at a 3-1 start with Adelaide next and West Coast coming across the Nullarbor in Round 4. We saw what happened last year when they were relying on just a sore Trent Cotchin; they need to find the right personnel to at least draw even in the contests, allowing their strengths elsewhere to carry them. Next game: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium, Sunday twilight. It's also pleasant viewing if . If they beat Carlton theyll make the top four, and clearly they can give anyone a fright in the finals, but now that theyre actually playing quality opposition every week lets see how they fare. 15. Team Rankings Premiership Winners Brownlow Medal Leaders & Awards AFL On Demand . 1972 Runner-Up 2nd 117.7per cent, Carlton 2021 record: 5-0 2. Previous ranking: 15. Richmond Edit the label text in each row. Iceozo. Note: Throughout the year, ESPN will rank all 18 teams, from top to bottom, taking into account which teams are playing the best footy, injuries, each team's recent opponents, and which teams are looking most like flag contenders. Getting the win? Listen below or subscribe in Apple Podcasts or Spotify. This week's opponent: Carlton (Marvel Stadium). Every year people say it doesnt matter if you finish on top of the ladder, and yeah there are about as many premiers from second and third as there are from first, but being in pole position still matters plenty. Richmond bullied St Kilda, and we saw a sustained ruthlessness from the Tigers we don't always seem to see. Were absolutely thrilled to see their next game being against the Bulldogs. Ignore & see my results >>. West Coast What that win over the Blues showed us is they're buying into what Stuart Dew is putting down, even if the results don't always fall their way. This week's opponent: Western Bulldogs (UTAS Stadium), 16. They're the most experienced group in the hunt, will probably lock up the double chance, and will get Jeremy Cameron back shortly. I quite liked the game. Up one spot only? 2021 record: 8-10-1 Might seem harsh, but we'll believe the Giants are a finals-worthy team when they're in the finals. 1976 Premiers 2ND 114.2per cent Previous ranking: 3. Craig McRae's Collingwood has the best territory game in the AFL after five weeks, ranking No. Download ESPN from Google Play Store Maybe that everyone is against us feeling can spur them onto a win, and then a home prelim? AFL Debate Club: What is Gillon McLachlan's defining achievement as AFL CEO? We're still not sure what sort of side Adelaide is going to be in 2021, and we're not quite sure what a slim victory means for a team like Fremantle. 2. 2021 record: 8-11 Hawthorn looked like a top eight side against the Pies at times, and Champion Data has backed that claim in this week's podcast on 'the teams showing premiership traits'! To us, that's a sign that Richmond is being worked out. Yes, theyve had injuries, but everyone has (maybe bar Melbourne). Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? Its also hard to argue against the sheer facts - this team seems to play better against stronger competition, which bodes well for the finals. Previous rankings (prior to): Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | Round 6 | Round 7 | Round 8 | Round 9 | Round 10 | Round 11 | Round 12 | POST BYE | Round 15 | Round 16 | Round 17 | Round 18 | Round 19 | Round 20, 1. 2021 record: 3-2 Previous ranking: 5. Stay on current site or go to US version. A Z-Score is pretty much how many standard deviations above or below the expected score a particular teams performance is. 2021 record: 2-3 This week against the Bombers will provide a welcome test ahead of September action, but the Dogs really should come out on top. Oops! Sure, at their absolute best. Is this where this group peaks? It probably shouldnt have been that much of a shock to have Geelong playing well in a home and away game - thats kinda their whole deal? They're lucky to be 9th on the rankings this week. Next game: Collingwood at the MCG, Sunday afternoon. Stream every match of every round of the 2022 Toyota AFL Premiership Season Live & Ad-Break Free In-Play on Kayo. Click 'Save/Download' and add a title and description. If Team A is above Team B, wed probably tip A to win if theyre playing this weekend. It certainly didnt feel like a five-goal loss against Sydney but in reality, with a couple of injury blows, the Magpies were nowhere near having the scoring power to win that game. Perhaps some time at the drawing board this offseason will get them back into roaring contention next year. Essendon 2021 record: 4-1 Average. This post-bye improvement is a real thing now. What are the Power Rankings? Previous ranking: 7. 17. There's something about playing the Swans, too - another close loss! a tastier adventures brand I also felt the urge to make a small contribution to the debate, using a statistical technique known as Z-Scoring (its probably got a more fancy name, but this will suffice). Sydney Theyre a remarkable 27-1 in their last 28 home and away games at the Gabba, dating back to Easter Thursday 2019, even though the footy world doesnt speak about their home ground advantage in the same way they do with the WA sides, or Richmond before last year. Well, we had to be right at some point if we kept writing Collingwood will lose someday, we promise. 2015 Premiers 3RD 158.4 They're almost lucky they're not on the bottom this week. The Crows have seriously delivered for the neutral fan over the last six weeks, playing five consecutive close games - pipping Melbourne and St Kilda, and just losing to Collingwood and Carlton (the 28-point Richmond loss was much closer than that sounds). After Dimma last year declared the 2020 flag would be the most well-earned in history, his side has played like it not that there's anything wrong with it. This week's opponent: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), 17. The LDV T60 MAX 4x4 diesel ute comes with a massive 160kW of power from a small $34,490. They won by four goals in that exact fixture back in Round 7, when they were really flying offensively, so we know they can do it. Of course, they lost their two games at the Cattery last year by 92 and 97 points, so Next game: Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday twilight. Collingwood 1989 Premiers MP 153.2per cent It's hard to know what to take out of the Dees' win over the Suns given how poor Gold Coast's performance really was. The reverse applies, too. Crowds are back in Victoria! Oops! Register Free Now >, LISTEN TO THE LATEST EDITION OF THE FOX FOOTY PODCAST HERE, OR TAP TO SUBSCRIBE IN ITUNES OR SPOTIFY. New York Giants: 658 Points (0 points gained) 4. Oh and good grief are they EVER going to kick straight? As many wins as they have losses, percentage almost even. 3. Ranking every AFL club song from worst to best. Next game: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, Friday night. Previous ranking: 3. While a loss for the Cats and the Bulldogs hasn't really changed too much for them at this point, Sydney's loss to St Kilda has. Previous ranking: 4. 1969 Premiers 4th 124.6per cent View Advanced Stats . Australian users can personalise their ESPN experience by downloading the App. 2021 record: 3-2 1969 Runner-Up 4TH 124.6per cent Once they get Sean Darcy and Nat Fyfe back, Freo should be OK, but youd still like to see a potential contender show a bit more dominance over a likely bottom four side, even away from home. AFL Debate Club: How could Gather Round best be improved in coming years? 2. This side just keeps impressing. 2021 record: 6-13